
and so it begins.
on the way to pick up the 6er last night I had a whole idea about how
to explain this ss stuff. then you sent the wikipedia link. that's a
perfect start. i read the preface and it completely complies with what
i'm saying. let's take it apart, sentence by sentence. at the end i'll
reveal the really critical part of understanding what this is all
about. the wikipedia article touches on the controversy surrounding
whether or not the fund is real savings or not. they don't anwswer one
way or the other. but i do have a question that, if answered, will
reveal the epic answer.
ok, so here we go...
wikipedia says:
"The Social Security Trust Fund is the means by which the federal
government of the United States accounts for excess paid-in
contributions from workers and employers to the Social Security system
that are not required to fund current benefit payments to retirees,
survivors, and the disabled or to pay administrative expenses."
ok, so the first thing that this says... it defines what the ss trust
fund (sstf) is NOT. And somwhat, what it is.
now, we all konw the gov't has multiple sources of income... income
taxes, excise taxes, tarrifs, capital gains ... on and on.
the gov't recieves a certain amount of money in the from of your FICA
contributions and pretty much a matching contribution from your
employer. (important: if you are self employed, you pay both. so, when
i was self-employed, i paid ~15% to ss before i paid for anything
else. so, in the future, a 20% FICA tax means that for a new business
to start, a person has to take on a 40% tax liability -- just to pay
social security, before state, local, or income tax, assuming the
current funding model continues in its present form).
"the social security trust fund is the means by which the federal
governement of the united states accounts for excess paid-in
contributions..."
so the gov't collects this FICA tax from employee and employer. this
money goes "somewhere"... that somewhere is NOT "to fund current
benefit payments to retirees, survivors, and the disabled or to pay
administrative expenses"
basically, there's more collected in FICA taxes than what is required
to operate SS so that money is "accounted for" by the united states
government. notice there is no mention of a bank account containing
gold, or paper, or even a mention of an electonoic account where
electronic money from your electronic debit account goes. the
government "accounts for" it.
Next sentence:
"More important, the trust fund also contains the securities that will
be redeemed to make benefit payments in the future when contributions
derived from payroll taxes and self-employment contributions no longer
are sufficient to fully fund then-current benefit payments. (The
controversy over its meaningfulness is a topic of the sustainability
of the unified Federal budget.)"
whoa. whoa. whoa.
so we have this thing called money.
we pay our taxes with money. when debt obligations are enforced via
the courts, debts are do in the form of money.
without much of a dispute, people would consider cash and coin, demand
deposit accounts, savings accounts, and gold and silver coins with
with dead presidents on them to be money. otherers consider 30 day
t-bills, CDs, and money market accounts to be money because they are
easily converted to cash, or equivalent, in a very short period of
time with relative ease.
we and our employers pay taxes in "money" (not in car titles, mortages
or bonds), which is most likely transferred from a demand demposit
account via a "check" or a transfer via debit card from our demand
depoist account. or maybe money order or wire tranfer. we all know
that demand depost account or chase or money order can be IMMEDIATELY
converted into a gallon of gas, a house, or paper and coin money.
Now, take out that cash money in your pocket. Look at it. What you are
holding is a government bond that has been redeemed. It is a bond with
a maturity date of NOW. It yields an interest rate of 0%. As time goes
on, the redemption of additional government zero date bonds will
deprecate the value of the paper you are holding. so there is a
definite incentive to exchange the retuned promise for some measure of
wheat or a session of chemo therapy as soon as possible. in addiition
to the obvious incentive to redeem the paper certiicates for cocunuts
or sea shells, before the paper becomes worthless due to ever
increasing quanties of paper being issued to make claims on scare
physical goods, there is an additional requirement to pay debts and
taxes in dollar form, as specified by "courts" defended by
interlocking clans claiming and maintaining monoply control over
violence through a series of complicated protection rackets (ie
government).
you are holding the realized expectation that the entire arrangement make sense.
lol.
so we'll just go with that.
(serious face)
the important thing to udnerstand about money is that there is no
implied or explicit obligaton behind it. it stands alone as a store of
value. you use that money to exhange it for boats or apples or lap
dances. value for value. the boat seller wants cash. and you want a
boat. you each perceive to be better off at the end of the exchange so
thus you make it.
now that we understand money, something happens along the way when you
send it to the government in FICA taxes...
we and our employers send, what we understand to be money, to the
government. and then something happens. we skip straight ahead to
"securities".
What does dictionary.com say a security is:
Security definition
An instrument representing ownership (stocks), a debt agreement
(bonds), or the rights to ownership (derivatives).
Investopedia Commentary
THE IMPORTANT SENTENCE: A security is essentially a contract that can
be assigned a value and traded.
Examples of a security include a note, stock, preferred share, bond,
debenture, option, future, swap, right, warrant, or virtually any
other financial asset.
ok, so it looks like we send what we understand to be "money" and what
economists understand to be the M1 money supply to the government and
the governement "accounts for" it. And then something happens to that
money. There's suddenly no mention of it. Out of nowhere appear
"securities" in the trust fund.
the last sentence:
"Paid-in contributions that exceed the amount required to fully fund
current payments to beneficiaries are invested in securities issued by
the federal government. The securities issued under this scheme
constitute the assets of the Social Security Trust Fund. Because under
current federal law these securities represent future obligations that
must be repaid, the federal government includes these securities
within the overall national debt.[1] The portion of the national debt
that is not considered "publicly held" represents the obligations
incurred by the government to itself, the bulk of which consists of
the government's obligations to the Social Security Trust Fund."
ok, so, for a moment, let's assume that the gov't doesn't want these
massive vaults full of pieces of paper, nor do they want a checking
account with a bazillion zeros on the balance. so they print pieces of
paper that is referred to as a "debt obligation" to retirees in the
future.
now.... here's the really critical issue that will settle all this.
IF IF IF IF IF IF these social security trust fund represents real
savings, then the "money" we send to the government needs to be
destroyed at the same moment the securities are generated. OR, the
"money" we send needs to accumulate and for the sake of simplicity, a
$10 billion security will be printed at the same moment cash is
destroyed.
REALLY IMPORTANT: Now, for this to be REAL SAVINGS, that "money" we
send can't exist in two forms at the same time!
You can't send the government $1,000 and then have them "account for"
it by generating a "security" and NOT destroy the $1,000 in "money"
once the security is generated -- OTHERWISE YOU JUST TURNED $1,000
INTO $2,000 USING AN ACCOUNTING TRICK.
The article goes on later. This is from the Office of Management and Budget:
"These [Trust Fund] balances are available to finance future benefit
payments and other Trust Fund expenditures – but only in a bookkeeping
sense.... They do not consist of real economic assets that can be
drawn down in the future to fund benefits. Instead, they are claims on
the Treasury that, when redeemed, will have to be financed by raising
taxes, borrowing from the public, or reducing benefits or other
expenditures. The existence of large Trust Fund balances, therefore,
does not, by itself, have any impact on the Government’s ability to
pay benefits. (from FY 2000 Budget, Analytical Perspectives, p. 337)"
Let me put it in terms of real estate.
So, you go and get a mortgage. Based upon your income and credit
levels, the bank makes a book keeping entry. In exhcnage for "money"
the bank marks the mortgage down as an asset on its balance sheet.
When you take out a mortgage you MAKE A PROMISE TO PAY the principal +
interest over some specified period of time. The bank, using the force
of law, can take that asset back from if you default on your promise.
That is their security. They can't compel you to pay or to work -- but
they can take your house.
Now... as we all know.... some enterprising people decided to take all
of these OBLIGATIONS TO PAY IN THE FUTURE (AKA A MORTGATE) and sold
them as "securities". In and of themselves these pieaces of paper have
no intrinsic value beyond your perceived legal obligation to pay --
and the bank's ability to take the house from you if you don't.
The "securities" held in the trust fund work the same way. They
represent an obligation on the part of tax payers to pay at some point
in the future. There is no house to take if someone doesn't pay. THEY
CAN COMPEL YOU TO PAY YOUR TAXES AND CAN AND WILL MAKE A CLAIM ON YOUR
LABOR in order to fulfill this obligaton. These 'securities' held in
the trust fund do not have an intrinsic value other than the federal
government's lawful ability to force you to give up your income.
Whether its a mortgage payment, or your labor, their value is based
upon a perceived future ability to produce income.
Now... back to money and what happens to the money when we send it to
the government and it becomes a 'security' or an 'obligation' to pay
in the future.
That money in your pocket contains no future obligation or a future
promise to do anything of any sort. It is a fully realized unit of
currency that is a store of value RIGHT NOW.
But how does this store of present value turn into an future
obligation after it is "accounted for"?
The article continues, this time with people arguing against me:
"Other public officials have argued that the trust funds do have
financial and/or moral value. "If one believes that the trust fund
assets are worthless," argued former Representative Bill Archer, then
similar reasoning implies that “Americans who have bought EE savings
bonds should go home and burn them because they’re worthless because
the money has already been spent.”[5] At a Senate hearing in July
2001, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was asked whether the
trust fund investments are “real” or merely an accounting device. He
responded, “The crucial question: Are they ultimate claims on real
resources? And the answer is yes.”"
These people aren't really disagreeing. Yes, a government bond does
have value. Why? Because the government can and will compel people to
pay taxes in order to redeem it. Same deal with mortgage backed
securities. These things are all FUTURE PROMISES TO PAY.
Again, this comes down to this question....
How does equity become debt?
How does money become an obligation?
Think of it like this:
You have a bicyle. The bicyle is some realized physical form of
innovation, thought and labor.
On the other hand, you have a promise to your kid. You WILL BUY THEM A
BICYLE IN THE FUTURE if they do all their homework.
Now, given that a bike doesn't cost a lot of money, and you and your
wife have jobs, and given that you are a man of your word and you
wouldn't disappoint your kid -- THE PROMISE OF A BICYLE IN THE FUTURE
IS JUST AS GOOD AS A REAL PHYSICAL IN THE PRESENT.
So, since this is a moral issue, and you love your kid, and you made a
promise -- THE PROMISE IS JUST AS GOOD AS THE REAL THING.
But in reality, AN IMAGINARY BICYCLE IS NOT THE SAME FUCKING THING AS
A REAL BICYLE.
Now, follow this....
The day comes to get the bicyle. You give your wife $100 and she goes
to the store. You expect her to come back without the $100 and with a
bike.
But instead she comes back without the $100 and a certificate which
states that the store will provide a bike in the future.
You tell your wife, uh, ok, that sounds great. But we need the bike
for the kid tomorrow.
Not a problem!
All you have to do is redeem the certificate and they'll give you a
real bike. Fabulous! You ask her, how do you "redeem" the promise of a
bike?
You come up with $100. They take the $100, give you a bike, and tear
up the promise.
LOL, but you already gave her $100 before she went to the store! Now
the bike is gonna cost $200?
No, not at all, she tells you. The $100 was converted into a promise
of a bike. It was "accounted for". All you have to do to get the bike
is to "redeem" the certificate by exchanging the certificate for $100.
The store promises the bike. They're totally good for it. In fact,
everone of these certificates that get exchanged for cash turns into a
bike.
But she took the $100 in the beginning, it disappared, she got no bike
and came back with a $100 piece of paper that will be torn up when you
get the bike and hand over another $100.
And you still only have a $100 bike.
WHERE THE FUCK DID THE EXTA $100 GO?
HOW DID YOUR $100 GET TURNED INTO A PROMISE OF A BIKE THAT WILL NOT BE
DELIVERED UNTIL IT IS REDEEMED BY ANOTHER $100?
SHE SPENT IT ON FUCKING DRUGS, MORON.
Do you understand why none of this makes sense in the real world?
So, in some sense the reply by the politicians are true. THE PROMISE
TO PAY is just as good as REAL MONEY.
Why? Because the Federal Government of the United States doesn't
default on its debt. And its exceptionally good at collecting taxes.
And there's a will among the population to pay taxes. So, a promise is
just as good as the real thing.
So... that's it... what happened to the money you sent to the IRS when
you pay your FICA taxes?
As far as I can tell, only two things can possibly happen to money EVER:
1) the money is saved (or, converted from "money" to a "security"
which can be converted the same way in the opposite direction)
2) the money is spent
Now, if all that money we send to SS needs to be "redeemed" through
borrowing money or collecting additional taxes, you just go screwed.
Congress done spent the money.
The money is gone.
All that's left is a ***promise on the part of the usa taxpayer*** to
come up with the money in the future.

RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
ok, you have successfully done nothing more than articulate the "there is no money" argument. cheers! i dont know how else to tell you but that i am VERY familiar with your argument and you obviously did not heed my plea to not set out to prove what you already believe. but hey, that's ok! :)
honestly e, i already knew all this. your explanation is perfect and summarizes to a t the conservative side of the argument.
one question:
IF IF IF IF IF IF these social security trust fund
> represents real
> savings, then the "money" we send to the government needs
> to be
> destroyed at the same moment the securities are generated.
> OR, the
> "money" we send needs to accumulate and for the sake of
> simplicity, a
> $10 billion security will be printed at the same moment
> cash is
> destroyed.
>
> REALLY IMPORTANT: Now, for this to be REAL SAVINGS, that
> "money" we
> send can't exist in two forms at the same time!
correct, so question: i have heard that ALL cash paid to the federal government for any service is immediately shreded. is this true? i have not been able to independently verify, but i have read in a number of places.
this seems to be critical to your argument, and as i said, i've heard the money is destroyed.
also, how is moving numbers in a bank account (direct deposit etc) the same as money? i am asking because i dont know. if there is NO physical anything involved, just numbers in a bank account, how does this impact our money supply? it must in some way or another, right?
these questions are probably unrelated to the SS debate, i'm just asking.
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
> correct, so question: i have heard that ALL cash paid to the federal government for any service is immediately shreded. is this true? i have not been able to independently verify, but i have read in a number of places.
this is probably not an accounting thing. this is probably just a
mechanism to take out old bills and replace with new bills. once they
get cash, they prolly shred it then electroniclly credit their
account, then use that to pay vendors.
> this seems to be critical to your argument, and as i said, i've heard the money is destroyed.
well, not only physically destoryed, it would have to cease to exist
for any purpose.
let's say i send the government $1,000.
that money gets debited from my account. it then gets credit to the
united states treasury. once that money is then turned into a
security, the treasury would have to then debit their own account
$1,000 as well. but they don't. they spend it.
> also, how is moving numbers in a bank account (direct deposit etc) the same as money? i am asking because i >dont know. if there is NO physical anything involved, just numbers in a bank account, how does this impact our >money supply? it must in some way or another, right?
well, there are several meaures of the ovall money supply that is
pretty broad an esoteric. but in the narrow sense of money that can be
used now and its not encumbered, you've got cash and coins, electronic
cash and equivalents that are "as good as cash". only about 10% of
"money" in the physical form of paper or coin. the rest are entries in
a database.
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
by the way, here is decent and recent piece on the opposing point of view related to the securities. read carefully and follow the links...
http://firedoglake.com/2010/07/12/catfooder-simpson-pushes-sovereign-def...
yes, its biased. but it is nearly impossible to get info that is not from one side or the other. it is maddening. but thats how it is apparently.
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
> http://firedoglake.com/2010/07/12/catfooder-simpson-pushes-sovereign-def...
>
> yes, its biased. but it is nearly impossible to get info that is not from one side or the other. it is maddening. but >thats how it is apparently.
i'll take a look at it.
but it really comes down to this.
is money the same thing as a promise? is a bicyle today the same thing
as a promise of a bicylce tomorrow? is phyiscal labor in the form of a
bicyle the same as planned labor in the future?
if you believe money is money, then you're a conservative, i suppose
if you believe a promise is as good as money, then i guess you're not.
as people like to say, the latin root for "credit" is "to believe"
if the gov't takes that money you send, spends it, and then creates a
security that is money, then the government figured out a way to make
1 = 2.
does 1 = 2
?
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
Dude, this article is seriously delusional.
I don't even know where to begin.
Here's a good one:
"Simpson’s explanation for repayment of Trust Fund bonds is nonsense.
The bonds could be repaid by issuing new Treasury bonds, and canceling
Trust Fund bonds. That won’t affect deficits, because borrowed money
isn’t part of the deficit calculation."
So we give the gov't money. Something happens. Then retirees need the
money. So....... by this guy's logic, the US gov't then has to borrow
money in order to pay out .... what it.... saved?
That's like me giving you $5 and then telling you that in order for
you to use the $5 you have to borrow $5.
Its delusional.
And, um, "borrowed money iisn't part of the deficit calculation"
LOL WUT
Every year, in fact every day, the gov't spends more money than it
receives. So it borrows it. Every day about $5 billion. THAT IS, BY
DEFINITION, A DEFICIT.
Look... what I'm about to say, is true:
The government debt doesn't matter. The United States is a sovereign
nation with the power to print and coin money. The debt can be paid
off with printed money at any time it wishes with notes issued by the
United States Treasury. Technically, there is no reason the United
States could ever default, even if the debt-to-GDP ratio where 50,000
to 1, let alone 120 to 1.
That statement is true. Its also fucking insane.
The author is writing form a place of pure fantasy.
On Wed, Jul 28, 2010 at 12:02 PM, TragicHipster <> wrote:
>> http://firedoglake.com/2010/07/12/catfooder-simpson-pushes-sovereign-def...
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
At the bottom he says:
"Social Security is funded by taxes created by the Federal Insurance
Contributions Act (FICA). Those taxes are deposited into the Social
Security Trust Fund. All payments of Social Security benefits come
from the Trust Fund."
If the first two sentences are true, when you deposit money into your
checking account, do you need borrow an equivalent amount of money,
which needs to be paid back with interest, in order to spend that
money that you saved?
And secondly, all payments of social security benefits do NOT come
from the Trust Fund. The TF was scheduled to start being drawn down in
2017 or whatever, but the date ended up coming sooner than expected
(past March)
Ultimately, economics is about morality and politics as much as it is
abotu supply/demand and accounting. And this guy has an agenda --
paint rightwingers as people that want to starve grandma. its that
simple.
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
> The government debt doesn't matter. The United States is a
> sovereign
> nation with the power to print and coin money. The debt can
> be paid
> off with printed money at any time it wishes with notes
> issued by the
> United States Treasury. Technically, there is no reason the
> United
> States could ever default, even if the debt-to-GDP ratio
> where 50,000
> to 1, let alone 120 to 1.
>
> That statement is true. Its also fucking insane.
HAHAHA. YES! isn't this also that dude mosler's take on all this?
my first reaction is very similar to yours. did you read the whole galbraith piece? yeah yeah, i know he's insane too...just wondering...
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
like i said recently, we're moving from a realm of extreme
keynesianism to pure lunacy and this dude is carrying a banner out in
front.
> HAHAHA. YES! isn't this also that dude mosler's take on all this?
>
> my first reaction is very similar to yours. did you read the whole galbraith piece? yeah yeah, i know he's insane too...just wondering...
i read the FDL jawn. what's the other one?
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
also from FDL...it was hyperlinked in the first piece i sent. here it is:
http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/58695
this is exactly where i thought we would end up. i understand exactly your points and as i've said i agree with them.
as i also said, if you and i are correct in our understanding here, this entire trust fund set up is CRIMINAL imho. i mean, i have no idea if laws are being broken, but it is serious bullshit. and when did this all happen anyway? when was the trust set up, when did we start borrowing from it (i assume immediately) etc etc. look, i dont give a rats ass if it was conservatives, liberals or freaking moon-monkeys that we need to blame. i just want to know wtf the deal is.
btw, here is a nice summary from the wiki page regarding the two persepctives we are discussing here:
Scenario 1 (Trust Fund is an accounting fiction):
1980: $1 payroll tax collected in 1980
1980: $1 lent by Social Security to the federal government
1980: Federal government increases spending on government programs by $1
2020: Federal government raises taxes by $1 plus interest to repay the loan to Social Security
2020: $1 plus interest transferred from Federal Government to Social Security.
so, 1 = 2 plus interest, right?
Scenario 2 (Trust Fund represents real economic savings):
1980: $1 payroll tax collected in 1980
1980: $1 lent by Social Security to the federal government
1980: Federal government increases spending on government programs by $0
2020: Federal government raises taxes by $0 to repay the loan to Social Security. Any tax increases that occur in 2020 would have happened anyway without Social Security.
2020: $1 plus interest transferred from Federal Government to Social Security.
huh? WTF? fed increases spending by 0$? wtf does that mean?
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
righto, getting back to social security, e...you read the galbraith piece yet?
there is this FAQ from SS that is useful as well
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/fundFAQ.html
i mean, i get the source. to me this is i think the question:
that FAQ says
As stated above, money flowing into the trust funds is invested in U. S. Government securities. Because the government spends this borrowed cash, some people see the current increase in the trust fund assets as an accumulation of securities that the government will be unable to make good on in the future.
Questions: "unable to make good on": they also mean "unless they tax us again" ie 1 = 2. right?
Without legislation to restore long-range solvency of the trust funds, redemption of long-term securities prior to maturity would be necessary.
Question: long range solvency means what? that the USG can no longer borrow the money as mentioned above to pay current liabilites or increase spending?
Far from being "worthless IOUs," the investments held by the trust funds are backed by the full faith and credit of the U. S. Government. The government has always repaid Social Security, with interest.
Question: How? with taxes, with borrowing? as we've said, isnt that the same thing?
The special-issue securities are, therefore, just as safe as U.S. Savings Bonds or other financial instruments of the Federal government.
Question: how does a savings bond work? if i redeem a savings bond, the government pays it how? they dont raise taxes do they? how do they pay it...this seems important to how they are stating they will be able to pay the trust securities, right???
Many options are being considered to restore long-range trust fund solvency. These options are being considered now, over 25 years in advance of the year the funds are likely to be exhausted. It is thus likely that legislation will be enacted to restore long-term solvency, making it unlikely that the trust funds' securities will need to be redeemed on a large scale prior to maturity.
Question: again, wtf do they mean by long term solvency exactly?
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
long-range solvency of the trust funds = long range social security can bring in enough revenue to meet its liabilities. ie, the demographic thing, OR legislation to increase the payroll tax cap.
i get it now.
now my question is:
redemption of long-term securities prior to maturity would be necessary.
when do they mature? what impact does this have? did you mention this is your last treatise on this? i better go look again...
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/specialissues.html
shows maturity rates - 1-15 years. not sure what the impact of this is though or what the comment below means about it "being necessary". would that mean you wouldn't see full value? right? so if we need to cash in the securities before they mature 1 = less than 1, right?
still not sure about that savings bond thing though...
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
this seems to be key
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/transactions.html
run those reports a couple ways. and data is even available for 2009.
such as
http://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/transactions.cgi
what this tells me is that the SS trust IS ALREADY REDEEMING THE SECURITIES ON AN ONGOING BASIS.
somehow this seems important to me.
as in, if the trust is already redeeming the securities, then why all the panic saying they won't be able to redeem them. THEY REDEEM THEM EVERY MONTH IT APPEARS.
help me out here...
1) ALL payroll revenue is deposited in these trusts.
2) EXCESS revenue is converted to securities
CORRECT?
said securities mature either the next June 30th or June 30th 1-15 years later. (not clear on how they hell they decide that)
as that transaction chart shows, whether payroll revenue meets liabilities in any given MONTH, varies. if it DOES, the excess is converted to securities. if it DOESN'T a security (ie savings bond) of appropriate maturity is cashed in, with interest and liabilities are met.
does this appear correct?
god help anyone who is following this conversation.
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
THEY REDEEM THEM EVERY MONTH IT APPEARS.
correction: they redeem them (monthly) if/when revenue does not meet liabilities.
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
I wonder what the mechanism is for this.
Our approach to this has been that in the year 2045 everyone will have
a big debate about what to do about it. But it appears they are
already 'redeeming' them.
Since there have been no tax increases to deal with this, this can
only mean one of two things:
1) they are issuing bonds to 'redeem' them, as in they are borrowing money
or
2) the federal reserve is issuing currency in exchange for the
currency. that is, they are monetizing debt.
it has to be one or the other.
It has already been acknowledged that the fed is monetizing regular,
non-ss securities to some extent. the amount is debatable. they are
doing this to avoid deflation and to provide liquidity to markets.
this was once considered taboo but has been practice since 2008 (?).
the key thing though is, how much monetization before there is an
effect? well, if we really are headed down a deflationary rabbit
hole....
ah, shit.... just had a thought...
ok, so if we monetize normal securities, like treasury bonds held by
the chinese, we can only get away with doing it a little. if we do it
a lot, investors freak and there is a potential for a spike in
interest rates, or god forbid, the bond market will protest by not
buying bonds, thus effectively shutting down our government.
BUT
since social security trust fund bonds are "special" and only held by
the american public (100%) then whatever the gov't plans to do with
with them is irrelevant to foreign or domestic investors.
if there is $2.5 trillion in the trust fund... this potentially opens
up the doors for a monetization of $2.5 trillion in debt -- and no
investors will care because the value of their regular bond holdings
won't be effected.
LOL
wow. that's what i think they will do....
everyone is talking about the next step of this collapse... everyone
is talking about how to stop deflation.
maybe they will monetize the entire trust fund?
On Thu, Jul 29, 2010 at 10:25 PM, oblio <> wrote:
> THEY REDEEM THEM EVERY MONTH IT APPEARS.
>
> correction: they redeem them (monthly) if/when revenue does not meet liabilities.
>
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
this is exactly the conclusion i have some to
since social security trust fund bonds are "special" and only held by
the american public (100%) then whatever the gov't plans to do with
with them is irrelevant to foreign or domestic investors.
if there is $2.5 trillion in the trust fund... this potentially opens
up the doors for a monetization of $2.5 trillion in debt -- and no
investors will care because the value of their regular bond holdings
won't be effected.
LOL
wow. that's what i think they will do....
everyone is talking about the next step of this collapse... everyone
is talking about how to stop deflation.
maybe they will monetize the entire trust fund?
this is also exactly what mosler says in his "mosler economics."
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
> maybe they will monetize the entire trust fund?
>
> this is also exactly what mosler says in his "mosler economics."
ah, well, there ya go.
since the bonds held in trust for the american public, there's no one
to panic or to sell them.
the only thing is that the money supply will obviously expand. but i
guess with deflation, you're looking at in reality negative real
interest rates -- which means investors pay the government to lend
government money.
you'd get a better return NOT lending anyone anything, but simply
sitting on cash -- or holding it in precious metals or farmland. and
there's no way in hell anyone wants that to happen so monetizing the
trust fund will help stave off deflation without panicing foreign or
domestic holders of "regular" bonds.
interesting... now we've gotta find evidence of this happening...
there's gotta be some web site or report that reports this stuff.
something.
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/monetize-intragovernmental/117936
On Fri, Jul 30, 2010 at 4:35 PM, TragicHipster <> wrote:
>> maybe they will monetize the entire trust fund?
>>
>> this is also exactly what mosler says in his "mosler economics."
>
> ah, well, there ya go.
>
> since the bonds held in trust for the american public, there's no one
> to panic or to sell them.
>
> the only thing is that the money supply will obviously expand. but i
> guess with deflation, you're looking at in reality negative real
> interest rates -- which means investors pay the government to lend
> government money.
>
> you'd get a better return NOT lending anyone anything, but simply
> sitting on cash -- or holding it in precious metals or farmland. and
> there's no way in hell anyone wants that to happen so monetizing the
> trust fund will help stave off deflation without panicing foreign or
> domestic holders of "regular" bonds.
>
> interesting... now we've gotta find evidence of this happening...
> there's gotta be some web site or report that reports this stuff.
> something.
>
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
the long and short of this all is that IF the market were allowed to
correct itself, there would be epic deflation. and there are good many
people out there who think that is the long term issue. its not.
there's no way in hell the political class will allow it to happen.
inlation is the only solution they will have in the end. when the time
comes, everything will be monetized and subsequently, the currency
destoryed. i don't see any other path.
On Fri, Jul 30, 2010 at 4:40 PM, TragicHipster <> wrote:
> wtf:
>
> http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/monetize-intragovernmental/117936
>
> On Fri, Jul 30, 2010 at 4:35 PM, TragicHipster <> wrote:
>>> maybe they will monetize the entire trust fund?
>>>
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
this guy really sums it all up:
http://bohemianinbabylon.blogspot.com/2009/11/social-security-trust-fund...
i have a solution to all this.
the word is devolution, not dissolution.
heading out. will write later.
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
Yes! Hence the band, Devo. What a concept - makes me think of people turning back into chimps.
Jen
Sent via BlackBerry from T-Mobile
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
> Yes! Hence the band, Devo. What a concept - makes me think of people turning back into chimps.
> Jen
i was thinking more along the lines of shifting federal
responsibilities from the federal government to the states. we're
prolly much better off with 50 state entities struggling to fix a
problem, and having 20 of them fail, then having one entity try to fix
one really big problem and fail -- and put at risk our entire system
of government.
despite the rhetoric of the tea parties and rise of conservatism,
peoplel simply aren't going to give up things like social security, no
matter what. the only solution i see is develution, over dissolution.
at any rate, i dunno who this guy jan is, but its absolutely
brilliant. he interviews pete stark, a dem rep from california, i
believe, on the subject of the national debt. the video looks a little
dated but the topic is not.
the fascinating thing about this is ... well ... just about everything.
the congressman explains the the national debt, when a country owes
money, is completely different from when a person or economic entitiy
owes it. he doesn't explain why, but the answer is that the gov't can
simply print money.
so this guy just keeps going after him and after him. eventually, the
congressman stands up, tells him to get the fuck out, and threatens to
throw him out the window.
its really quite amazing, the congressman's attitude. he seems to
really, really, really trust his version of accounting.
given this ongoing convo about the social security trust fund, this is
highly interesting stuff.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8DZtc5cDmE&feature=player_embedded
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
can i shift this conversation for just a moment?
i would like some sort of closure on the securities issue.
e, you stated very clearly numerous times that the securities can't/won't (whatever) be repaid. you listed numerous examples of your thoughts about how it works.
however, in recent emails i sent, i think i showed that the securities are traded in ON A MONTHLY BASIS. this would seem to mean that the REAL issue is NOT the securities, but the sum total of outstanding securities, correct?
in other words, the problem IS NOT the worth, or in your opinion, worthLESSness of the securities, the problem is in the sum total outstanding ammount. since the securities are being traded in monthly, clearly they function the way they are supposed to. the ISSUE is the 2.4 trillion in outstanding, what is known as intragovernmental debt, CORRECT?
so the real issue is CONTINUING to meet the obligations, and presumably, the ability to meet those obligations in the FUTURE, not the relative worth or worthlessness of the securities, which prior to my posts, i THINK the understanding was that the securities were NOT traded in monthly, but were building up for the eventuality when they are needed at some point in the future. i think i clearly showed, and you agreed, that this understanding is FALSE, or at the very least a misunderstanding.
do we agree on this?
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
> e, you stated very clearly numerous times that the securities can't/won't (whatever) be repaid. you listed numerous examples of your thoughts about how it >works.
lol, well, in general we agree. but let me be really clear. i think
that through researching this i've come to learn that the
"conservative" and "liberal" position are in agreement. lol wut? it
seems everyone agrees on what will have to happen. the only issue is
whether or not it matters.
let me put it this way... there's no reason why any sovereign should
ever technically default on a debt when they have the power to print
money ad infinitum.
what this comes down to is balance... the markets may/will tolerate a
certain amount of monetization/borrowing. also, politically, the
public and the economy will tolerate a certain level of taxation, but
there comes a point where both those situations become intolerable.
foreign lenders will/may tolerate a certain amount of money printing,
but history shows that lenders have their limits. additionally, an
economy can be dynamic and can create jobs when payroll taxes are 15%.
but there comes a point where it just becomes unbearable. i *might* be
willing to start a company with a 15% payroll tax. but at 20% or 25%
or 30% ? what's the point?
there comes a point where politicians and the financial class reach a
limit. there is only so much that can be collected in taxes and
there's only so much borrowing/printing that can be done before a
limit is imposed externally. "liberals" do not believe a limit exists,
as far as what i can tell when i see things like like that pete stark
video. "conservatives" either "want to starve retirees" (which i don't
believe, but the msm like to believe) and/or "conservatives" believe
that the public and lenders will only tolerate certain limits (as i
do)
the net results? the only solution, as far as i can see, is that
obligations will not be fully met. the constraints placed on our
political structure by creditors and taxpayers will necessitate that
the gov't, most likely, will default either wholly or partially in its
obligations to retirees in teh future.
i see this as putting our current understanding of the social
contract, at its core, under severe stress. and i do not believe it
will be pretty.
> however, in recent emails i sent, i think i showed that the securities are traded in ON A MONTHLY BASIS. this would seem to mean that the REAL issue is NOT the securities, but the sum total of outstanding securities, correct?
well, according to what i read, the trust fund securites are *most
certainly not* traded. i haven't looked into the details much, but i'm
going to trust what you say and i'm going to guess those those
securites are occassionally *redeemed* either through tax collectsion
or monetization. the question i have is, did this start in march, cuz
now they have less coming in than going out? i dunno. if they've been
doing that before march, the question is why? i dunno, but i can guess
(below)
> in other words, the problem IS NOT the worth, or in your opinion, worthLESSness of the securities, the problem is in the sum total outstanding ammount. since >the securities are being traded in monthly, clearly they function the way they are supposed to. the ISSUE is the 2.4 trillion in outstanding, what is known as >intragovernmental debt, CORRECT?
you owe a debt on your mortgage. you have a legal obligation to pay in
the future. according to staticians, given factors x, y, and z, the
chance of you defaulting are whatever. so if i were to purchase your
OBLIGATION on the market, i would be doing so on the basis that you
will pay me IN THE FUTURE. also, i would have security -- your house,
if you don't pay. and the gov't also has security -- the ability to
tax all manner of labor, assets, transactions, etc.
> so the real issue is CONTINUING to meet the obligations, and presumably, the ability to meet those obligations in the FUTURE, not the relative worth or >worthlessness of the securities, which prior to my posts, i THINK the understanding was that the securities were NOT traded in monthly, but were building up for >the eventuality when they are needed at some point in the future. i think i clearly showed, and you agreed, that this understanding is FALSE, or at the very least >a misunderstanding.
can you point to evidence that there are redemptions? i'm not saying i
disagree, i'd just like to see how much and why. the gov't engages in
all sorts of debt redemptions simply to keep cash flowing around. just
for the heck of it. cuz markets need cash moving around to function.
its possible that they are in some way doing that for that reason.
if there are redemptoins going on, i'd expect it for this reason:
1) the redemptions are limited and are somehow related to maintaing
liquidity in some sector of the debt market
or
2) the redemptions just started as of march, when more was going out
than was coming in.
let me ask you two questions ... and for me, this is closure:
what was the motivation behind setting up the trust fund in teh first place?
answer: so that in the future the gov't would not have to sharply
raise taxes, print money, or borrow in order to meet future
obligations.
what will be the result of securities, instead of cash (or some other
tangible non-obligation based asset such as gold or land), being held
by the trust fund?
answer: in teh future, the gov't will have to sharply raise taxes,
print money, or borrow in order to meet future obligations.
seriously. re-read that. that's key to all of this.
everything i've read indicates that the redemption of securities will
have to result in one or some combination of those things. and
everything i've read indicates that the trust fund was set up so that
those things would not have to happen.
again. that's key.
ergo: the excess money was lent to the treasury and an asset was
swapped (spent) and replaced with an obligation, thus accomplishing
the exact opposite of what was intended.
trust fund = fail
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
to this point
well, according to what i read, the trust fund securites are *most
certainly not* traded. i haven't looked into the details much, but i'm
going to trust what you say and i'm going to guess those those
securites are occassionally *redeemed* either through tax collectsion
or monetization. the question i have is, did this start in march, cuz
now they have less coming in than going out? i dunno. if they've been
doing that before march, the question is why? i dunno, but i can guess
(below)
right, i didnt mean "traded" i meant "traded in" meaning "redeemed. exactly. i get the idea that it happens EVERY SINGLE MONTH. let me be absolutley clear. ALL payroll taxes are turned into securities. said secrutities are traded in EVERY MONTH. if there is an excess of revenue, then a surplus of securities is created...thus the 2.3T outstanding intragovernmental debt to SS.
THIS IS THE KEY
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/transactions.html
run investment transactions. i'm not 100% sure im right here. but that's what it looks like to me.
set it for detailed monthly, both funds, 2009.
ITS ALL RIGHT THERE. every month payroll taxes automatically create securities that are then redeemed on a rolling basis based on their maturity.
the more you look at it. the more it makes sense.
of course, i havent gotten to your next fundamental point about soverign debt. that is critical obviously. and you're absolutly right about the left right divergence on that issue. i'll get there, i want to be absolultely sure we are on agreement on this. it is new info to me and is really critical to trying to understand the claim that securities are worthless. they are NOT worthless.
its the accumlamted liability that is the problem.
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
> right, i didnt mean "traded" i meant "traded in" meaning "redeemed. exactly. i get the idea that it happens EVERY SINGLE MONTH. let me be absolutley clear. >ALL payroll taxes are turned into securities. said secrutities are traded in EVERY MONTH. if there is an excess of revenue, then a surplus of securities is >created...thus the 2.3T outstanding intragovernmental debt to SS.
> THIS IS THE KEY
well, not ALL payroll taxes. payroll taxes that are in excess of
payments get turned into securities. i don't think they turn the
payroll taxes into securities then redeem them and pay them out. i
don't think you're saying that (?)
now ... as far as getting turned into securities... what does that
mean? you can't have gold turn into a promise of gold. or turn land
into a promise of land more than you can turn lead into gold. it gets
turned into securities *after* it is lent to the us treasury (and thus
spent in the general budget).
i think all this stuff is generally acknowledged.
\> ITS ALL RIGHT THERE. every month payroll taxes automatically create
securities that are then redeemed on a rolling basis based on their
maturity.
let's be clear "automatically create securities" = "lent to the us treasury"
right?
as far as maturity, for whatever reason, they issue these bonds at
various lengths, like any other bond.... 1 year, 5 year, 10 year, etc.
> the more you look at it. the more it makes sense.
i'm kinda burnt out at the moment, so i gotta look closer tomorrow.
but this appears to be some sort of slosh fund.
a few thoughts before i crash:
1) what is an "SI certificate" and how does it differ from a "SI Bond"?
2) i assume the "aquire" value in the spread sheet means it is lent to
the us treasury? the challenge -- find a record of this cash flowing
into the general fund. if it is being debitted from this account, it
certainly has to be creditted *somewhere*
3) since there is technically no market for these bonds/certificates,
who the eff is determinging these rates?
4) both "si certificates" and "si bonds" both have "aquire" and
"redeem" associated with them. why? the certificates are "short term"
and the bonds are "long term".
i'm gonna have to look into this a bit tomorrow. but this is
apparently some sort of massive slush fund that is off budget.
> of course, i havent gotten to your next fundamental point about soverign debt. that is critical obviously. and you're absolutly right about the left right divergence >on that issue. i'll get there, i want to be absolultely sure we are on agreement on this. it is new info to me and is really critical to trying to understand the claim >that securities are worthless. they are NOT worthless.
its simple: if i own a printing press and have the sovereign
authority, backed by courts and the force of arms, to print money,
there's no reason why i'd ever default on a debt. i could borrow
whatever sum of money i wish from you or anyone else and i have the
power to pay it back with money i print. i can take any piece of
paper, put whatever seal or dead president i want on it, and pay off
my debts with it. if i owned a printing press, i could borrow $1
trillion and agree to pay it back in one week. in one week i'd produce
a pieace of paper indicating its worth $1 trillion and if i control
the courts, my debt has been repaid. end of story. for that reason, in
all honesty, its absurd to think that the united states treasury would
ever default on any debt.
the problem that the "liberals" in this don't understand is that the
value of money is determined by supply and economic productivity. if i
expand the money supply by $1 trillion but do not increase economic
productivity by $1 trillion i set the stage for inflation. that's why
its so epic that all this cash is sitting around in bank vaults right
now. there used to be $40 billion at any one time. but due to
"quantitative easing" there is now 5,000% more money sitting around.
and, due to the multiplier effect of a fractional reserve system, that
money can be expand 6x's, which means that money supply could, in the
course of 6-12 months, expand by easily a couple hundred % . all that
needs to happen is someone like paul krugman to get a really bright
idea about taxing reserves. seriously. this is how this shit happens.
over and over again throughout history. its just a matter of time.
they don't know how to stop it. in fact, they are planning on
expanding it.
> its the accumlamted liability that is the problem.
yes.
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
> well, not ALL payroll taxes. payroll taxes that are in
> excess of
> payments get turned into securities. i don't think they
> turn the
> payroll taxes into securities then redeem them and pay them
> out. i
> don't think you're saying that (?)
oh lol FUCK. you're right. this shit is nuts. i give up. its all a scam. that or i'm just a dumbass. its seems to me that if 2 guys with college + educations can't figure this shit out with any degree of certainly after 2 weeks then there's nothing to figure out.
it says "investment of receipts not required to meet current expenditures all over the place." only the excess revenue is invested in securities. in which case i dont understand why securities are redeemed and acquired every single month. but whatever. its hopeless.
either you have faith in fiat currency or you dont. period. its that goddamn simple.
IT IS ALL A MATTER OF FAITH.
or if you prefer...secular mysticism.
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
> either you have faith in fiat currency or you dont. period. its that goddamn simple.
>
> IT IS ALL A MATTER OF FAITH.
>
> or if you prefer...secular mysticism.
historically, ALL fiat currencies in time rever to their inherent
value of the medium upon which they are passed.
what is the inherent value of a $1 million note?
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
It appears the same account is being applied to the Medicare Trust
Fund as has been to SS:
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/08/02/sebelius-makes-false-claim-abo
I pointed this out during the health care "debate"... I noted that
they were saying they were cutting spending on Medicare, and claiming
that the Health Care Bill was going to save the public all of this
money... but they were completely ignoring the fact that the money
was going to spent elsewhere, thus erasing the "savings" of the health
care bill...
The ENTIRE FUCKING PREMISE behind the Health Care Bill saving the
Treasury money was based upon the same fraudulent accounting that been
applied to Social Security for the past 25 years.
They take the surplus, spend it, replace it with an IOU in an account,
and claim the money exists -- when in fact an obligation on the part
of the public in the future is NOT the same thing as savings, as we've
exhaustively pointed out here.
And the balls these people have for claiming that people who wish to
use real-world accounting are out to see to it that grandma is stuck
eating cat food are at the same time robbing grandma blind -- and
fucking getting away with it.
You know, I simply can't wait to see how all this plays out. Its not
some friggin' task of forensic accounting to see how much money has
been stolen from the American public and given away to foreign
governments, Wall Street, the political class, the military-industrial
complex, and protected groups like teachers and auto workers unions.
When the day of reckoning comes and the Treasury is forced to
confiscate 40% of YOUR savings account to see to it that oil and spare
parts can be supplied to the military in Iran, people are going to
fucking want answers about just what the hell happened and why the
hell so many people are living in cardboard boxes.
I. Can't. Wait.
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
--- On Wed, 8/4/10, TragicHipster <> wrote:
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RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
its just amazing... this secular mysticism in action. why is debt diff
for gov't? cuz gov't can turn lead into gold for the win!!!!!
the thing is, if debt increases wealth, then why is the guy so mad
about republican tax cuts, since the tax cuts lead to debt?
On Wed, Aug 4, 2010 at 9:57 AM, W. R. Thunderstud <> wrote:
>
> I saw this video a while ago. I am not sure what is more classic, the congressman's answer or Jan's mustache.
>
>
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
omg, this guy is amazing.
he starts this debate with a congressman about the initiation of force
and theft and in the middle of it his staff member steals his tape:
http://janhelfeld.com/shop/interview/torres/
On Wed, Aug 4, 2010 at 10:01 AM, TragicHipster <> wrote:
> its just amazing... this secular mysticism in action. why is debt diff
> for gov't? cuz gov't can turn lead into gold for the win!!!!!
>
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
> omg, this guy is amazing.
by the way, i suppose i should point out that this dude is nuts. if you can watch the video with pelosi and think otherwise...i dont know what to tell you. i spend a fair amount of time at the oregon state capitol. enough to know that the fact that dudes like this can even get interviews with elected officials is evidence that we're doing JUST FINE as a democracy. it actually made me see pelosi is a really good light.
jan helfeld is a crackpot. he is NOT amazing. just my opinion.
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
The following excerpt is from the 1998 Senate Budget Committee session.
BEGIN EXCERPT
U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD CHAIRMAN ALAN GREENSPAN: .....making sure
that surplus is there.
U.S. SENATOR ERNEST F. HOLLINGS (D-SC): Yeah, making sure that surplus
is there. I'm telling you, Dr. Greenspan, that's music to my ears.
GREENSPAN: Well, I remember you taking this song a long way over
recent years, and I must say, Senator, a number of us were skeptical
that was even discussable, figuring we would never get to unified
surplus that we said which you were preaching was very interesting,
scientifically sound, but unrealistic. I apologize.
HOLLINGS: Well that's all right, because your Greenspan Commission
report in section 21 says just exactly what you're saying here. That
was in 1983; here now, in 1999, on page two, "simply put, enough
resources must be set aside over a lifetime of work to fund retirement
consumption." Now that section 21 said set it aside. President Bush,
in section 13 3 01 on November the 5th, 1990 signed that into law. And
we making headway. Let's understand, though, that we're still running
deficits. 'Cause I'm not going along with this monkeyshine about
unified. 'Cause unified is not net, the debt still goes up, is that
correct?
GREENSPAN: If you're...it depends on whether or not you wish to create
the savings...
HOLLINGS: I'm not asking what you're trying to create. The simple fact
is the debt has been going up at least $100 billion for the last
several years.
GREENSPAN: Outside, on budget, that is correct.
HOLLINGS: That's right, on budget, you're spending a hundred billion
more than you're taking in.
GREENSPAN: Correct.
HOLLINGS: And this president's budget spends another hundred billion
more than we take in.
GREENSPAN: I haven't seen it yet.
HOLLINGS: You haven't seen it? You're testifying about it now.
GREENSPAN: I haven't seen the budget. You haven't seen it either.
HOLLINGS: Well, you know his plan. Look you think he's going to spend
less than a hundred billion more?
GREENSPAN: I will wait to see what the numbers look like.
HOLLINGS: Well, the truth is...ah, shoot, well, we all know there's
Washington's math problem. Alan Sloan in this past week's Newsweek
says he spends 150%. What we've been doing, Mr. Chairman, in all
reality, is taken a hundred billion out of the Social Security Trust
Fund, transferring it over to the spending column, and spending it.
Our friends to the left here are getting their tax cuts, we getting
our spending increases, and hollering surplus, surplus, and balanced
budget, and balanced budget plans when we continue to spend a hundred
billion more than we take in.
That's the reality, and I think that you and I, working the same side
of the street now, can have a little bit of success by bringing to
everybody's attention this is all intended surplus. In other words,
when we passed the Greenspan Commission Report, the Greenspan
Commission Report only had Social Security in 1983 a two hundred
million surplus. It's projected to have this year a 117 million
surplus. I've got the schedule, I'll ask to put in the record the CBO
report: 117, 126, 130, 100, going right through to 2008 over the ten
year period of 186 billion surplus. That was intended; this is
dramatic about all these retirees, the baby boomers. But we foresaw
that baby boomer problem, we planned against that baby boomer problem.
Our problem is we've been spending that particular reserve, that
set-aside that you testify to that is so necessary. That's what I'm
trying to get this government back to reality, if we can do that.
We owe Social Security 736 billion right this minute. If we saved 117
billion, we could pay that debt down, and have the wonderful effect on
the capital markets and savings rate. Isn't that correct? Thank you
very much, Sir. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
END EXCERPT
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
taking a step back...
if the money was really there, don't you think it would be really easy
to figure it out and the argument would already be settled?
like, if you're wife told you she was saving $500/month and when you
wanted to go see it, every ecnoomist on the planet couldn't agree to
whether or not she was saving it... don't you think that would kinda
look bad?
they're obviously hiding the fact that its not there. there's no other
way. otherwise, it would just be obvious.
like, if my employer does a direct deposit, i don't need a team of
ecnonomists to spend 25 years arguing about whether or not i really
got paid.
On Wed, Jul 28, 2010 at 12:02 PM, TragicHipster <> wrote:
>> http://firedoglake.com/2010/07/12/catfooder-simpson-pushes-sovereign-def...
>>
>> yes, its biased. but it is nearly impossible to get info that is not from one side or the other. it is maddening. but >thats how it is apparently.
>
> i'll take a look at it.
>
> but it really comes down to this.
>
> is money the same thing as a promise? is a bicyle today the same thing
> as a promise of a bicylce tomorrow? is phyiscal labor in the form of a
> bicyle the same as planned labor in the future?
>
> if you believe money is money, then you're a conservative, i suppose
>
> if you believe a promise is as good as money, then i guess you're not.
>
> as people like to say, the latin root for "credit" is "to believe"
>
> if the gov't takes that money you send, spends it, and then creates a
> security that is money, then the government figured out a way to make
> 1 = 2.
>
> does 1 = 2
>
> ?
>
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
i want to be very clear here:
personally, i AGREE WITH YOU 100%. I AGREE WITH YOU.
however, i am trying to understand WHY people on the other side (the side i do not believe) are so insistent that the problem is manufactured.
like i said, i put little stock in what i believe. yes, i think it is true that 1 does NOT equal 2. and yes, i fully understand that is what APPEARS to be the argument here.
however, i am reading too much stuff on the other side that says otherwise.
believe me, i get what you are saying, and of course, you APPEAR right.
i am just trying to get the other side, fully understand it and come to what i hope it an objective conclusion. i just dont feel im there yet.
the really critical piece comes down to that does 1 equal 2? BOTH sides SAY NO!!!!!
so just read that FDL crap and see if what they are saying makes any sense.
look, it's like this - either i believe the USG has perpetrated one of the largest single scams and conspiracies on the american public EVER, or i believe there is so other explanation. occam's razor tells me there is a better explanation than a massive scam. at least, i hope so.
let's put it this way - i DO NOT WANT TO BELIEVE WHAT I BELIEVE!!!!
make sense now? i am trying really hard to prove myself wrong.
RE: the social security trust fund: premises and givens
i guess what the whole "the money is real" vs. "the money is not real"
argument that is illustrated in the wikipedia article (and here) comes
down to this:
Is money equivalent to the promise of money in the future? Some
people, such as fiscal conservatives, say no, they are different.
let me put it this way.
Is $5 in your hand equal to my promise of giving you $5 tomorrow?
Well, it would be nice to have the money NOW but you don't need it
now. You need it TOMORROW. And I do have a job and $5 isn't that much
money and we have a "social contract" between us so you're not going
to worry too much. You'll just trust me. Besides, I could take $5 out
of my wallet and put it in a "lock box" and then give it to you
tomorrow. But I'd really rather spend it on lunch TODAY. And since
there will always be more money coming in, neither I nor you will
worry about getting that $5 TOMORROW.
The problem though is that we're not talking about me coming up with
$5 tomorrow.
I don't have a criminal record, I have a college degree, we're
friends, and I have a job. So the chances of you getting shafted are
fairly low. Like non-existent. The real money vs. my promise in this
situation is really a matter of principle and symantics, not of
actually whether or not I come up with the money.
But what if I promise you $100 tomorrow?
Or, I promise you $10,000 in a month?
Or, better yet, I promise you $10,000,000 in six months?.
At some point, my promises, given my salary as a computer programmer,
starts to get a little silly. I don't play the lottery, I'm not set to
inheret any money from rich relatives... at some point, you gotta
start to think, there's no way this dude can follow through on the
promise.
And that's the problem with Social Security and the "its a promise"
vs. "its real savings" argument. At some point, you gotta go beyond
the issue of principle and start to focus on, can this be paid?
Given demographics, and rising medical costs that the gov't is on the
hook for, and all that... we're looking at a future where the promise
to pay is not a $5 promise.
You're paying close to 7% of your income to FICA now. Your employer is
matching. That's a lot of dough.
What happens when you have to pay 15% and your employer has to match?
Aside from the money being taken from the bottom line, this is a MAJOR
disincentive for job creation, given that most jobs are created by
small businesses (which are also gonna get screwed on the health care
costs that are mandated, rather than voluntary).
Politically, when do people say "enough!"
The entire idea of Social Security is dependent upon the idea that the
American public will put up 1/6 or 1/5 or more of their income to pay
for people to sit on their asses for the last 25 years of their lives.
That is a really nasty gamble.